While rival Kelly Clarkson has sung more Star-Spangled Banners in her career, my favorite Canadian (sorry Joey Votto), Avril Lavigne, leads another category of pre-game traditions: the ceremonial first pitch. She’s thrown two; one during the 2009 season in Toronto, and one in Tampa Bay during the 2011 season (the same night she later performed a disastrous concert and got booed off the stage for cursing everyone out). I’ve decided to take the analytic approach to these occurrences. I’ve obviously .giffed them, and at the end I’m gonna throw some 20-80 grades on Avril’s pitching mechanics with the help of the all-knowing Doug Thorburn (pitching guru at Baseball Prospectus).
This was Avril’s first pitch in Tampa Bay:
To start, she’s standing about 10 feet in front of the mound, so we know her arm strength isn’t exactly a plus tool. But she plants her right foot somewhat correctly, and fires an eephus-like dart to then Rays reliever Adam Russell. At first I thought it was JP Howell, who currently wears number 39 for the Rays. And then this little meet and greet happened:
JP Howell is only 6″0 tall and 190 lbs. I know Avril is small. But if that’s Howell, she’s a legal midget…and I’m pretty sure that’s not the case. The player who Avril is actually posing with looks legitimately twice her size. Sure enough, it’s Russell (then number 36), who is listed at a ridiculous 6″8 and 255 lbs. Makes more sense.
We are fortunate to have a side angle for this pitch, which is an essential view when evaluating top pitching prospects such as Avril Ramona Lavigne. She takes the ball out of her glove awfully early, almost like a right-handed Brian Fuentes, except not at all.
This action shot gives us a better sense of what pitch Avril was throwing:
Hard to judge, considering how tiny her hands are, but it looks like a palmball/change-up hybrid grip, as also evidenced by the late arm-side run the pitch shows. I’m almost positive Juan Francisco would swing at it.
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Let’s move on to Avril’s other ceremonial first pitch.
Again, we see her throwing from closer than where the mound actually is, except in this case, they even moved the plate up for her. It’s a big breaker. This shot of her right after the release is incredibly informative:
You usually want your glove pointing to your target when you’re pitching, but it’s not like Avril gives a shit. Her fingers are actually indicating some type of knuckleball variation, which could explain the intense movement, and also why the Jays would trade for RA Dickey three years later.
More curiously, this is what Avril did after she threw the pitch:
It seems to be her version of Aroldis Chapman’s infamous somersault.
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The quotes in bold are from Thorburn’s two part series, “Making the Grade”, which ran at BP late last year. They summarize what to look for when assessing pitching mechanics.
Balance (55): “When I assess balance, I anchor on the position of the head relative to the pitcher’s center-of-mass. A pitcher with strong balance will have minimal lean during the motion, stabilizing the head above the body throughout the delivery.” It’s pretty solid, as her low effort delivery allows her to not fall down and completely embarrass herself. It’s unquestionably better than Carlos MarmLOL, and she also keeps her head relatively aligned with the rest of her body throughout the delivery.
Momentum (45): “To evaluate momentum, I take into account the speed and direction with which a pitcher travels from first movement to foot strike.” It’s eh. Her stride is certainly strong, which helps, but when you consider how limited/non-existent the leg kick is, it’s hard to go higher for this one.
Torque (30): “Torque is heavily associated with arm speed and therefore pitch velocity. The pitchers with the most efficient torque can effectively use the body to transfer kinetic energy, maximizing hip-shoulder separation rather than relying on sheer arm strength to add rotational velocity.” Very poor. One would hope that she could maintain at least one other similar quality to Aroldis, such as the elite torque that he produces with his max-effort delivery, but I guess not. There’s just not a lot of pushing that baseball forward. Needs improvement.
Posture (80): “A pitcher’s posture is strongly related to balance, as indicated by the position of the head relative to the player’s center-of-mass.” She’s essentially standing straight up until she releases the ball, so I gotta hand her an elite grade for posture. It’s unclear if she knows that she’s supposed to lift her leg at all, but hey, posture is posture is posture. Whether it’s accidental or not.
Release Distance (30): “The greatest indicator of release distance is the length of a pitcher’s stride, which is most heavily influenced by momentum from first movement into foot strike, though a pitcher’s height and leg-lift also play a role—a higher lift will keep the leg off the ground for a longer period of time with which to take advantage of momentum.” There’s zero leg kick whatsoever, and that kinda dooms this grade from the start. I’m tempted to throw at least a 4 on this one, seeing as the amount of movement she gets on the pitch (due mostly to gravity, but whatever) even with the horrendous release is extremely impressive. The pitch in Toronto shows uncanny similarities to Sergio Romo’s slider. But unfortunately, she’s really not releasing it anywhere close to the optimal point in her delivery, thus the below-average grade.
Repetition and Timing (20): “When evaluating starting pitchers, I will typically diagnose the repetition grade on a game-by-game basis, a nod to the fleeting nature of mechanical timing and the crucial role it plays in game-day performance.” You say small sample size, I say this is a complete disaster and a serious disappointment. These two pitches were thrown at completely different angles, release points…even the arm action was different. Sure, we’re only looking at two pitches ever, but the huge mechanical discrepancy between the two is just bad. Let’s be honest…she’s probably gonna have to move to the bullpen.
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Throughout the season, CFB will be analyzing celebrity first pitches with similar breakdowns to this one. We look forward to seeing what kind of pitches are thrown. And we just can’t wait to .gif them.
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